The Freelance Burndown Revenue Chart

Revenue Has a Half-Life

Every freelance engagement has an end date. Without a clear view of when current contracts taper off, freelancers often face sudden income gaps. This burndown tool projects current committed revenue forward in time, showing where the pipeline needs to be working hardest to maintain income targets.

Why the Math Compounds

A flat "subtract X each month" model misreads how revenue actually decays. If 15% of revenue churns each month, month two's churn is applied to a smaller base than month one's — the absolute amount shrinking each period. The calculator models this as compounding: revenue at month n+1 equals retained revenue (n × (1 minus churn)) plus new business. Across 12 months the curve flattens toward a steady state where new business exactly replaces churn.

The Steady-State Concept

If churn and new-business inputs stayed constant indefinitely, revenue would converge to a steady-state level equal to monthly new business divided by the churn rate. New business of 1,000 with 15% monthly churn produces a steady state of around 6,667 — and that is exactly where revenue trends if held long enough, regardless of where it starts. The 12-month projection shows how close the trajectory gets to that level in a year.

Worked example

With current monthly revenue 5,000, monthly churn rate 15%, and new business monthly 1,000, the projected revenue at month 12 is 6,429.60. Month 1 churns about 750 (15% of 5,000); month 6 lands around 6,038; the curve flattens toward the steady state of roughly 6,667 over time. Adjust any input and the projection recalculates.

The levers in this calculation

The three inputs are Current Monthly Revenue, Monthly Revenue Churn Rate, and Expected New Business Monthly. The churn rate is the most consequential lever — a small change to the percentage compounds across all 12 months and shifts both the trajectory and the steady-state level. New business is additive each month, so doubling it shifts the steady state proportionally. Current revenue mostly affects the shape of the early months before the curve converges toward steady state.

What this calculation does not capture

The model assumes constant churn and constant new business each month — real freelance revenue is lumpier, with cliff drops when large contracts end and surges when new ones close. Seasonal patterns, payment timing lags between work delivered and revenue collected, and the time cost of business development sit outside the projection. A pessimistic version of the new-business input often produces a more reliable planning figure than the central estimate.